"The cost is so insignificant compared to what it will cost if we lose one or two aircraft to such an attack,'' according to Yuval Aviv, chief executive of Interfor Inc., an antiterrorism consultant to the U.S. government. He points out that people will avoid using planes and the effect on the economy could be substantial. Aviv, who was director of security for Israel's El Al airline in the 1970s, says that El Al jets are equipped with flare technology designed to deflect missiles, and its pilots are trained to respond to an attack.
Still, there are major questions about how effective such antimissile systems are, and who would bear the cost. In May 2003, the American Department of Homeland Security asked for proposals from makers of antimissile systems. The department is expected to hire two companies to develop prototype systems.
The American Raytheon Company is among the defense firms working on that technology. Raytheon's SafeFlight system combines missile-detection radar technology made by an Israeli company, Elta, with a Raytheon system. Originally developed for the U.S. Air Force - it is designed to defeat an attacking heat-seeking missile. Raytheon says its system is less expensive than competing laser-based solutions. The cost is estimated to be between $500,000 and $1 million per aircraft.
Legislation introduced in Washington calls for outfitting all of the roughly 6,800 planes in the U.S. commercial fleet, with antimissile defenses. The cost is estimated at $10 billion. Experts say the nation's struggling airlines could not afford the cost. Some suggest that money could be better spent securing airports and tracking down terrorists.
The foiled plot to smuggle a shoulder-fired missile into the United States for use against civilian airliners, is likely to boost stalled federal legislation to install countermeasures on commercial aircraft.
Focus on Technology to Protect Against Missiles
A "lamp-based" system that uses heat transmitters to confuse heat-seeking missile sensors.
Phosphorous flares that are deployed to divert a heat-seeking missile.
Thin, metallic "chaff" strips that are deployed to confuse radar-guidance systems
Two companies owned by the Israeli government, Israeli Aircraft Industries (IAI) and Rafael, are offering to develop civilian versions of their military systems.
IAI's Elta Systems division offers "Flight Guard" technology using phosphorous flares. The system is in use on 150 aircraft, including military airplanes and commercial aircraft used by heads of state and corporate executives. IAI spokesman Marvin Klemow declined to identify the commercial customers except to say that none is based in the United States.
Flight Guard uses six sensors that provide 360-degree coverage. The sensors automatically detect a missile, confirm a threat, and deploy some or all of the phosphorous flares on both sides of the fuselage.
Klemow cited an attack in November 1997 when four troop-carrying Sri Lankan helicopters were targeted by rebels with shoulder-fired missiles. Three helicopters with the Flight Guard system avoided damage, but an unequipped helicopter was downed.
Concerns about the Flight Guard system have focused on the possibility of ground fires ignited by the flares. "This is nonsense," Klemow said. "The flares burn hot and quickly - really like a hot gas - without any residual flame."
Klemow said the Flight Guard system would cost about $850,000 per plane for 200 planes.
He also said the flares would not fire if the plane was too low, reducing the risk of them hitting the ground. The infrared system using lasers was developed by the American Northrop Grumman Corp. The company is seeking to adapt for civilian use its LargeAircraft InfraRed CounterMeasures system, which it developed for C-17 Globemasters and other large transport aircraft and helicopters.
Missile-warning sensors automatically detect an incoming infrared missile either at launch or in flight. The sensors signal a processor that confirms a missile attack, as opposed to some other heat source. A confirmed threat causes a turret to swivel and emit a modulated laser beam that hits the missile's "seeker" and turns it off course.
Jack Pledger, Northrop's director of infrared countermeasures, said that for commercial use, an external pod or "canoe" containing the sensors, processor and laser turret would be installed on the exterior of the aircraft.
Pledger said it would cost about $2 million per airplane to buy canoes for 300 aircraft, a cost that could be halved if it were installed on 1,000 aircraft.
The window of greatest threat from a shoulder-fired missile is described by experts as the 30 minutes after takeoff and the 30 minutes before landing. Most such missiles, including the Russian-made SA-18 Igla involved in the New Jersey sting operation disclosed recently, are effective up to about 15,000 feet, Pledger said.
By comparison, to effectively control the launch area from which a missile could effectively be targeted against a plane, about 300 square miles surrounding each runway would have to be patrolled, the experts said.
The second Israeli government firm, Rafael, has a technology called "Britening" that employs sensors that detect a missile. It then emits a hot beam of photons (light) to disrupt the missile's heat-seeking guidance system.
BAE Systems, a British firm, has developed the Matador, a "lamp-based" system that employs a matrix of heat transmitters to fool the heat-seeking sensors in the missile. The Matador is deployed on some military aircraft, government airplanes and business jets.
Concerns about shoulder-fired missiles being used by terrorists increased in November 2002 after an unsuccessful attack by two missiles on a chartered Israeli jet in Mombasa, Kenya.
In February 2003, Senators Barbara Boxer, D-Calif., and Charles E. Schumer, D-N.Y., introduced legislation requiring that countermeasures against shoulder-fired missiles be placed on all of the about 6,800 commercial airplanes in the United States beginning at the end of this year. Last month, the Senate approved a $60 million appropriation for the research and development of such countermeasures.
In a letter to Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge, Boxer said the New Jersey sting operation was another warning of the threat from shoulder-fired missiles. Failing to act means "we will be culpable for not moving fast enough to protect the American people from this threat," she said.
The cost of equipping commercial jets with antimissile systems is estimated at $10 billion. Yet aviation experts warn that the fall out costs associated with the downing of a jet, far outweigh the cost of the protection.
Technology to thwart shoulder-fired missile attacks already exists and is in use on some military and commercial aircraft.
Existing antimissile technology falls into four categories:
An infrared detection system using lasers to jam the missile's guidance system.